top of page

Parent teacher association

Public·3 members

Iron Ore Price Rises On China Steel Demand Opti...

Iron Ore Price Rises On China Steel Demand Opti... ->>>

Iron Ore Price Rises On China Steel Demand Opti...

But Murphy says Brazil's weak performance is not the only factor; despite pandemic lockdowns in early 2020, China is on track to produce record volumes of steel once again this year, and that means iron ore demand is strong.

Welcome and thank you for joining this year's second-half Shark Tank event with myself, Noel Dixen, alongside my fellow colleagues, Anthi Tsouvali and Tim Graf. Today we'll present our best trading ideas with the hope of earning your vote, which we'll ask you to cast by the end of today's session. I'll kick things off by going over what I believe is the best-in-breed in the commodity FX space. I then will hand it over to Anthi to express her views on European equities. Then we'll close things out with Tim, who will give his thoughts on sterling yen. With that said, let's get started. First and foremost, I think it's important to give some context. Commodity FX performance year-to-date has certainly not kept up with the overall commodity index. If you were to grasp the BCOM index against a basket of commodity currencies year-over-year, you will see that there is a significant divergence. Aside from idiosyncratic factors, one of the major reasons for this divergence is that the rally and the commodity index has not been broad based. What is true is that commodities are up close to a six-year high; roughly thirty per cent plus. However if you were to exclude or take out energy, the index is actually only up about roughly twelve per cent. What this tells us is that the performance in the commodity index has been largely skewed by the energy sector. This is consistent with the performance in the commodity currencies. The top best performers have been the NOK and have been the CAD, which makes sense because they are the top biggest exporters of oil among their peers. The worst performers have been the Aussie and have been the Kiwi. Moving forward as we think about the commodity complex, we actually think that the divergence is going to start to normalise. As I take a step back and I think about what's going to be the best opportunity in the next six-to-twelve months from a risk reward standpoint, for me it's clearly the Aussie. I think it's fair to say that a lot of the bad news has been priced into the Aussie. I think it really sets the stage for the green shoots that are going to start emerging to really start to come across. One of the major challenges that Australia has faced is that they were behind the curve in vaccinating its citizens. What this has translated into is severe lockdowns. For example, Melbourne just underwent the longest lockdown in the world, with a duration of two-hundred and sixty-two days. This is largely to blame for the poor jobs mess that we've just experienced about a week ago. The silver lining, however, is that since then a lot of these headwinds have since abated. The restrictions are starting to get eased. They currently have achieved a seventy per cent vaccination rate. If you delve into the last employment print, the participation rate actually picked up after a three-month decline. There's evidence of significant pent-up consumer demand that is yet to be unleashed. What is more is that despite this tough environment, their exports have actually held up quite well. Despite their dispute with China and a drop in iron ore prices, that's been replaced by an increase in exports to places such as India, and an increase in thermal coal prices and liquified natural gas that has helped to offset some of the drop in iron ore. What that has equated to is a term of trade print that has been pretty solid from a historical context. When we think about China, it appears that they're off to a soft versus a hard landing. What is important to point out is that at this stage, their corporate bonds and their mortgage loans are continuing to hold up quite nicely. Then you add on to that the signalling to expand government debt issuance. So


Welcome to the group! You can connect with other members, ge...
bottom of page